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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-08-05 22:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052033 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016 Visible and microwave satellite imagery indicate that deep-layer westerly shear continues to affect Ivette. However, water vapor imagery does show cirrus expanding westward, so the shear is most likely confined to the layer below the outflow level. Nonetheless, Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, respectively, and the UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T5.3/53 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. Ivette is located due south of a mid-level anticyclone, which is causing the cyclone's westward motion. Ivette will soon be reaching the western edge of the anticyclone, causing it to turn west-northwestward and slow down soon while it approaches a mid- to upper-level trough northeast of Hawaii. After day 3, the remnant low associated with Ivette should turn westward, steered by the low-level trades. Although the ECMWF is somewhat faster and farther south than the other models, there is still very little spread among the guidance. The NHC track forecast is just a little south of the multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. Vertical shear is probably not going to decrease, and, in fact, it should increase to over 20 kt in about 36 hours, lasting through the rest of the 5-day period. Ivette does appear that it will reach warmer waters (around 29C) in about 24 hours, which could foster just a little more strengthening. After that time, however, the hostile shear should cause a fast weakening trend, and Ivette is likely to become a remnant low by day 4. The global models seem to suggest that the remnant low could degenerate into a trough by day 5, but for now the official forecast will carry a low through the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN consensus and not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 15.5N 131.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 15.9N 133.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.6N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 17.2N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 17.9N 138.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 18.8N 141.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 18.0N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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