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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-08-06 22:59:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062059 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016 Visible satellite imagery shows that Ivette's center is located near the western edge of the deep convection due to 15 kt of west-southwesterly shear. There has been little change in the structure of the cyclone, and Dvorak estimates remain 3.0 from TAFB and SAB. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Vertical shear is expected to increase to over 20 kt in about 24 hours, lasting through the end of the forecast period. Weakening is forecast, and the global models suggest that Ivette could lose organized deep convection in 48-72 hours and open up into a trough by 96 hours. The NHC forecast is therefore updated to show Ivette as a remnant low on day 3 and dissipated on day 4. Ivette is moving west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt. This heading should continue for the next 36 hours while Ivette moves between a mid-level low to its west and the subtropical ridge to its north. After that time, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast has been nudged northward from the previous forecast between 24-72 hours and is very close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.3N 135.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.8N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 138.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.3N 140.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.6N 141.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 18.4N 145.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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