je.st
news
Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-08-07 10:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070838 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016 Convection has redeveloped on the northern side of Ivette, although the center remains partially exposed. An ASCAT-A pass at 6Z revealed maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and since thunderstorm activity has increased markedly since that time, the initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt. Ivette is forecast to gradually spin down over the next few days due to cooling waters, strong shear and entrainment of dry air aloft. A strong surface high over the central Pacific should cause an enhanced gradient on the northern side of Ivette, similar to Howard's synoptic situation last week. Thus, Ivette will probably have an extended weakening phase, and the official forecast reflects this situation, ending up a little higher than the previous advisory at day 2 and 3. The global models continue to show the system opening up into a trough by day 4. The storm remains on track and is moving 290/10 kt. Ivette should gradually turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few days as it becomes a shallow remnant low. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, and the new NHC track prediction continues to be positioned only a small distance south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 16.9N 137.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.4N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.0N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.4N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0600Z 18.4N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0600Z 17.5N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||