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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-08-07 16:36:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071436 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016 Ivette generated a new burst of deep convection around the time of the last advisory, and that burst has been persisting. However, satellite data show that the center remains partially exposed to the southwest of this cloud mass due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear. An overnight ASCAT pass showed at least 35-kt winds, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 40 kt since the cloud pattern is as organized or perhaps slightly better than 6 hours ago. The future for Ivette looks bleak. The cyclone is forecast to encounter even stronger southwesterly shear in the next few days, along with increasingly drier air and marginal sea surface temperatures. These factors suggest that Ivette's time as a tropical cyclone would likely come to a close sooner rather than later, and the official forecast calls for remnant low status in 36 hours in agreement with the global models. The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and is in agreement with the bulk of the intensity guidance, with dissipation shown in 2 days. Ivette has been maintaining a west-northwestward motion of 290/10. This general motion should continue today as the cyclone is steered by the flow on the south side of a subtropical ridge. A westward and west-southwestward change in the cyclone's heading is likely once Ivette becomes a shallower cyclone in about 24 hours. The new forecast track is hardly changed from the previous one, and is near the multi-model conensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.2N 138.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.7N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 18.3N 141.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 143.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 18.3N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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