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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-03 16:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 031432 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 Ivette's convective pattern is gradually improving, with a band lying to the west of a central cluster of deep convection. However, recent microwave data still shows the low-level center displaced to the northeast of the deepest convection due to some shear. Dvorak intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from SAB and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB; the initial intensity is therefore raised to 40 kt. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be 27-28C for the next 96 hours, while the vertical shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to gradually diminish over the next couple of days. These conditions would seem to support steady or even fast strengthening. Surprisingly, the SHIPS, LGEM, GFDL, and HWRF models only intensify Ivette to near the hurricane threshold. Given the seemingly favorable environment, the NHC official forecast is above all of the main intensity models, with the exception of COAMPS-TC, and it does not deviate from the peak intensity indicated in the previous advisory. Slightly lower SSTs and increasing shear are likely to cause some weakening by days 4 and 5. A strong subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico is causing Ivette to move quickly west-northwestward at 285/15 kt. The ridge is expected to remain entrenched north of Ivette for the next three days, putting the cyclone on a westward heading but with a gradually decreasing forward speed. By days 4 and 5, Ivette could gain a little more latitude due to a break in the ridge that will develop northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. There is high confidence in the future track of Ivette due to a tightly clustered model envelope, and the NHC track forecast is mainly an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 14.6N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.0N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 15.2N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 15.4N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 16.5N 135.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 18.0N 138.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 19.0N 141.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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