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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-03 22:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032035 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 Ivette continues to display a sheared convective pattern with the low-level center located to the north-northeast of the deepest convection. Recent ASCAT data shows that the maximum winds are near 40 kt, which is also an average of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The vertical shear affecting the cyclone is still expected to diminish during the next 24 hours, and sea surface temperatures will be between 27-28C for the next 3 to 4 days. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated, with a peak intensity likely occurring in about 3 days. Most of the intensity models still don't show significant intensification even though the shear gets quite low in a couple of days. For now, the NHC official intensity forecast leans on persistence and continues to be near the high end of the intensity guidance. Incidentally, the HWRF model has come in a little stronger on this cycle and now shows Ivette getting near the threshold of a category 2 hurricane. The initial motion remains 295/15 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is expected to turn Ivette westward by tonight, with that heading continuing through 48 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge to the northeast of Hawaii is forecast to cause Ivette to turn back to the west-northwest and slow down on days 3-5. Confidence in the track forecast remains high through day 5 due to a tightly packed guidance envelope, and the official NHC track forecast is relatively close to the previous forecast and the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.2N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 15.4N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.5N 129.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 15.8N 131.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 18.5N 139.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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