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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-04 10:53:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040853 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016 Shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air appear to have taken a toll on Ivette, as the thunderstorm activity has decreased in coverage and organization during the past 12 hours or so. Recent microwave and geostationary satellite pictures show very little banding features and a significant displacement of the convection to the south and southwest of the low-level center. Despite the decrease in organization, overnight ASCAT data showed 35 to 40 kt winds over the northern semicircle of the tropical cyclone. Therefore, the initial wind speed remains 40 kt for this advisory. A UW/CIMMS shear analysis and the SHIPS model suggest that the shear may be beginning to decrease, however the current lack of organization and nearby dry air is likely to prevent significant intensification today. However, strengthening is still anticipated by tonight or Friday when Ivette is forecast to be over warm water and in a low shear environment. After day 3, cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear should begin the weakening process. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous advisory, but remains above the statistical guidance, and it is closer to the HWRF that still brings Ivette to hurricane intensity in a couple of days. Ivette continues to move just north of due west at about 13 kt. The tropical storm should continue moving westward during the next 36 hours as it remains to the south of a strong subtropical ridge. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken when a trough deepens to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. This should cause Ivette to turn west-northwestward and slow down. There is very good agreement among the track guidance this morning and higher than normal confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track forecast is near the multi-model consensus and is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 14.7N 124.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 14.8N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 14.9N 129.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 15.2N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 15.8N 133.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 16.9N 136.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 18.3N 140.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 19.3N 143.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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