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Tropical Storm IVETTE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-04 16:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102016 800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016 After Ivette produced very little convection near its low-level center last evening, a large burst of thunderstorms developed around 0700 UTC, and the cirrus canopy has continued to expand since then. However, there is no data to support that this convection has led to any intensification yet, and the maximum winds remain 40 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Vertical shear appears to have decreased below 10 kt, which may be fostering the recent increase in convection. With sea surface temperatures remaining between 27-28C and shear expected to be low during the next three days or so, intensification is still anticipated. But because Ivette has failed to strengthen during the past 24 hours, the peak winds shown by the intensity models continue to decrease, and none of the guidance makes the cyclone a hurricane. For now, the NHC official forecast continues to show Ivette reaching hurricane intensity in 2-3 days, but this forecast may need to be adjusted if Ivette does not start strengthening soon. A significant increase in shear and marginal SSTs should lead to fairly quick weakening on days 4 and 5. Ivette is moving westward, or 280/13 kt. A strong subtropical high located north of the cyclone is expected to steer Ivette westward for the next 36 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge northeast of Hawaii should cause the storm to slow down and move west-northwestward through the end of the forecast period. Again there have been no significant changes in the track guidance, and the updated NHC track forecast remains very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.1N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.2N 128.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.4N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.7N 132.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.3N 134.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 17.5N 137.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 19.5N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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