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Tropical Storm IVO Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-08-24 22:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 242032 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE REMAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW IN THIN BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS AND THE CONTINUED MOTION OVER COLDER WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS PRESENT...WHICH CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE CENTER FINDING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10. IVO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHEARS APART IN 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STALL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. EVEN THOUGH IVO IS WEAKENING...MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 22.9N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 24.2N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 25.6N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 26.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 26.8N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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