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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-12 22:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 122038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 The overall cloud pattern as seen in GOES-18 visible and infrared imagery does not appear to have changed very much from earlier today. While the RMW still seems to be a bit large, the cyclone displays a large area of cold cloud tops with some evidence of curved banding. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T-2.5/35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, while recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 42 kt. Based on the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Ileana with an initial intensity estimate of 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is north-northwest, or 340/8 kt, which is a bit faster than before. The overall synoptic steering pattern is unchanged in the models from earlier. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will continue to steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest through Friday, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, this trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This evolution should induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. There were no major changes to the guidance for the first 36 to 48 h of the forecast, and very little change was made to the previous official forecast. Thereafter, the guidance is a bit farther west, with some of the models keeping the cyclone moving north-northwestward over the Gulf of California rather than moving inland over mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast was only nudged slightly west of the previous forecast, not as far west as the consensus aids during the 48 to 96 h time period. Ileana is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur on Friday, and the NHC forecast shows some strengthening before then. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some weakening. When the center reaches the Gulf of California, the sea surface temperatures are quite warm. While some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water, Ileana will encounter increasing westerly wind shear and drier air by hour 48, so it won't have much time to restrengthen. After that time, weakening is expected as Ileana's convection is sheared off, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 h. It should be noted that the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show the cyclone becoming a remnant low a bit earlier around hour 60. Although the cyclone will likely dissipate prior to 96 h, a 96 h point is carried as a remnant low for continuity. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.9N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-09-12 22:38:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 081 FOPZ14 KNHC 122038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 30(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 34(34) 11(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Advisory Number 2
2024-09-12 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 122037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 108.0W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.7N 109.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 24.1N 110.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 25.3N 110.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.3N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 27.2N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 111.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics