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Tropical Storm Ileana Graphics
2024-09-14 11:09:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 09:09:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 09:09:39 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Ileana Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-09-14 10:53:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 140853 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 Ileana continues to produce bursts of deep convection, but a sharpening of the west side of the cloud canopy suggests stronger vertical shear is setting in. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening, and the fact that subjective and objective intensity estimates have not begun to decrease much quite yet. Ileana's center is moving northward over the southern Gulf of California, away from southern Baja California Sur, with an initial motion of 360/8 kt. A northward motion is expected to continue today, bringing Ileana's center near or over the coast of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora around midday. The new NHC track forecast is a bit to the east of the previous prediction during the first 12 hours or so, mainly due to an adjustment of the initial position. The track guidance indicates that Ileana should slow down and turn north-northwestward and then northwestward tonight and on Sunday, generally running up the length of the Gulf of California. Although deep-layer shear is beginning to increase, several models, including the GFS and ECMWF, indicate that Ileana could maintain tropical storm intensity and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of Sonora later this morning and early afternoon. These same models, however, show Ileana's convection quickly being sheared away and dissipating by this evening and tonight as the cyclone moves into a much drier air mass. As a result, the NHC forecast shows Ileana degenerating into a remnant low in about 24 hours, with the remnant low dissipating over the central Gulf of California by early Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora later this morning and afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 24.3N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.1N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 27.4N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-14 10:52:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA CONTINUES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA... As of 2:00 AM MST Sat Sep 14 the center of Ileana was located near 24.3, -109.2 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics