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Tropical Storm Ileana Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2024-09-15 04:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 150236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Ileana (EP4/EP092024)
2024-09-15 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ILEANA MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SINALOA... As of 8:00 PM MST Sat Sep 14 the center of Ileana was located near 25.5, -109.0 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Ileana Public Advisory Number 11
2024-09-15 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...ILEANA MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SINALOA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 109.0W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ileana is drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected soon with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near, or over the coastal region of northern Sinaloa during the next several hours, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin overnight, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora into Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics