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Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-17 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas around 1800 UTC. A National Ocean Service observing site near Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb. A Weatherflow station at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 44 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still offshore. Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007. Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant strengthening could occur. Now that the center is moving inland, gradual weakening is expected. It cannot be stressed enough, however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana during the next day or so. Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance. Key Messages: 1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and Galveston areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 29.3N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 30.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1800Z 30.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0600Z 31.4N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1800Z 32.1N 95.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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