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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-07-27 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 Satellite images indicate that Irwin's cloud pattern has not changed very much since the last advisory. The low-level center appears to be located on the eastern edge of the deep convection due to the shear caused by Hilary's outflow. The Dvorak estimates still yield an initial intensity of 50 kt. The environment is neither hostile nor favorable for a significant change in strength for the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a steady weakening should begin as the circulation encounters cooler waters. By day four, a weaker Irwin should be very close to Hilary, and by day five, the two cyclones should have merged, with Hilary becoming the dominant feature. This is the solution provided by the ECMWF and GFS global models, and it reflected in the NHC forecast. Currently, Irwin is forecast to remain embedded within very light steering currents and only a small westward drift is anticipated during the next two days. After that time, Hilary should have already passed by the north of Irwin. The cyclone should then begin to move northward and northwestward around Hilary's circulation until the the merge occurrs. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope formed by the northernmost GFS and southernmost ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.0N 124.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 15.0N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 23.0N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH MERGING 120H 01/1200Z...MERGED WITH HILARY $$ Forecaster Avila
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