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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-08-23 22:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019 The satellite appearance of Ivo has changed little today, with northeasterly shear confining the deep convection to the southwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation. Although recent ASCAT data suggests that the peak winds may have decreased, the initial intensity is conservatively maintained at 55 kt, based on the earlier wind report from Clarion Island. Ivo's initial motion is 335/09 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for at least the next 48 hours as the cyclone is steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow system in a couple of days, the forward motion should decrease and a turn to the northeast should occur, as the circulation becomes steered by the low level flow. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and is near the various consensus model solutions. Although guidance suggests the wind shear will decrease over Ivo starting in about 12 hours, the cyclone is beginning to move over progressively cooler waters. This should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken over the next couple of days. By Sunday afternoon, Ivo will be over SSTs of about 22 C and in a more stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to become devoid of deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The latest forecast is an update of the previous one and in agreement with the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.7N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 20.9N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 22.4N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 24.1N 117.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 25.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 28.7N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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