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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-08-24 22:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 242046 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 Although the storm continues to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Ivo continues to produce deep convection in a band over the southern semicircle. A combination of satellite intensity estimates and recent ASCAT-C data suggest that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying a research mission just reported a central pressure of 1000 mb. The cyclone should continue to move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and thus weakening is expected. The new intensity forecast again follows the guidance and the previous forecast in calling for Ivo to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to dissipate completely by 72 h. The initial motion is 335/7. The subtropical ridge to the east should steer Ivo generally north-northwestward for the next day or so. After that, the cyclone is likely to slow its forward motion and turn northward as the low-level flow becomes the dominate steering mechanism. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track through 24 h, and after that it is shifted slightly to the east of the previous track. The persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days has generated high swells that are now reaching portions of the southern Baja California peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 22.3N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 23.7N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 25.2N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 26.3N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 26.8N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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