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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-22 04:35:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 049 WTPZ45 KNHC 220235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 PM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 An earlier GMI microwave overpass that arrived after the release of the previous advisory revealed a tightly coiled band of convection that wrapped around the southern and southeastern portion of the circulation. More recent microwave imagery, however, shows that the system is being impacted by northeasterly shear with the center now located near the northeast portion of the primary convective mass. Objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates unanimously supported an intensity of 45 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased accordingly. Ivo is expected to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the next 36 h or so. These conditions favor strengthening however the aforementioned moderate northeasterly shear is likely to temper the rate of intensification during that time. The NHC forecast calls for steady strengthening and again brings Ivo to hurricane status within 36 h. After that time, cooler waters and a drier and more stable air mass should cause weakening, and Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical by day 4. The official intensity forecast shows a peak a little higher than most of the guidance but otherwise is close to the model consensus. Ivo is moving west-northwestward or 285/16 kt. The storm should slow down later tonight or Thursday as it begins to move around the southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge. In about 24 hours, a weakness is expected to develop in the ridge which is expected to cause Ivo to turn northwestward. A general northwestward motion should then continue through the remainder of the forecast period. An additional reduction in forward speed is likely late in the forecast period as the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow. The track guidance as trended toward a slower motion after 72 hours, and the updated NHC track has been adjusted a little southward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 16.1N 111.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 17.6N 114.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 18.8N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 20.0N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 23.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 26.4N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 27/0000Z 28.8N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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