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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-08-22 10:42:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220842 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2019 The cloud pattern associated with Ivo is a little better organized and consists of a circular mass of convection surrounded by a well- defined cyclonically curved band. The center appears to be more embedded under the canopy than several hours ago. Despite the improvement, recent scatterometer data show that the winds have not increased yet and are between 40 and 45 kt. Because the cloud pattern has improved since then, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is the consensus among TAFB, SAB and SATCON estimates. The environment during the next 36 hours should favor Ivo to strengthen a little more and reach hurricane status. Thereafter, Ivo should begin to encounter dry air and cooler waters, resulting in gradual weakening. By day 4, Ivo should be over 20 degree Celsius waters and become a remnant low void of deep convection. The intensity forecast follows very closely the HCCA solution and is a little higher than the consensus. Satellite data suggest that the center of Ivo has either moved a little bit south of due west or it has reformed closer to the convection with a decrease in forward speed. However, an average of the past 6 to 12 hours gives a motion toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. Ivo should be reaching the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge in 12 to 24 hours, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone more toward the west-northwest and northwest. This general motion should then continue until the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little to the right of the previous one, but it is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope and in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model average TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 15.8N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 16.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 17.4N 115.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 24.6N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 28.0N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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