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Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-08-23 10:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230842 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 23 2019 Unexpectedly, stronger than anticipated northeasterly shear affected Ivo during the past 12 hours or so, and the low-level center became detached from the main area of deep convection. The center can be clearly seen on microwave and conventional imagery, and it is located very near Clarion Island, Mexico. An automatic Mexican Navy weather station at that location reported that the surface pressure has been falling and has measured gusts to 39 kt. This information is very valuable to diagnose the structure of the cyclone. Despite the deterioration of the cloud pattern, a recent ASCAT pass measured a peak wind of 50 kt associated with Ivo, but this value was confined to a small area in the southeast quadrant. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is also a value close to the Dvorak estimates, or perhaps a tad higher. The cyclone is expected to be over warm waters for about a day or so, and given its vigorous circulation, Ivo could maintain the same intensity for the next 12 hours. After that time, Ivo should begin to weaken over cooler waters. Unanimously, all the models weaken the cyclone and so does the NHC forecast, and by 72 hours or sooner, Ivo should have degenerated into a remnant low. The center is moving toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone managed to find a weakness in the ridge, and since the steering pattern is not expected to change, this general motion is anticipated to continue until dissipation in 4 days. The NHC forecast is on the left edge of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.9N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.0N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.5N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 22.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 27.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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