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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-08-07 16:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071433 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression has not become any better organized since earlier today. There is little evidence of banding features at this time, although upper-level outflow is fairly well defined over the northern semicircle of the cyclone. The intensity is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as the lack of any surface observations of tropical-storm- force winds. Aside from some land interaction with southwestern Mexico today, the cyclone will move over warm waters and in a low shear environment, which should allow for strengthening. However, since the system is currently broad and poorly organized, only gradual intensification is anticipated. The official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and very close to the latest SHIPS guidance. Since the center is not yet well-defined, there is significant uncertainty in the initial motion, which is estimated to be 300/9 kt. The depression is expected to move around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system for the next day or two, and then turn toward the right ahead of a trough near southern California. The official track forecast is similar to that from the last advisory and in close agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 18.7N 105.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 19.5N 106.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 20.7N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 21.7N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 22.8N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 25.2N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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