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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-08 05:00:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080300 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016 Although cloud tops have warmed some since the previous advisory, the overall convective cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved and passive microwave imagery indicate that the internal structure has also improved. The intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on consensus T3.0/45 kt satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a T3.2/49 kt objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT. Microwave fixes indicate that the initial motion estimate is now 310/11 kt. Javier is forecast to move along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Texas, with the cyclone passing very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula in 24-72 hours. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this track scenario, and the official forecast track closely follows the consensus model TVCN. A 0121Z SSMI/S image indicated that Javier appears to be developing a small mid-level eye feature. Given the compact inner-core structure of the cyclone, along with low shear of 5-8 kt and SSTs of at least 29C along the forecast track, at least steady strengthening seems reasonable for the next 36 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the available guidance and closely follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 20.6N 107.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 22.2N 109.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 23.1N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 26.5N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 12/0000Z 28.9N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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