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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-08-08 10:52:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 080852 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 The tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since the previous advisory. The convective banding structure that was noted during the evening has become less apparent, but a new burst of convection has recently developed near the estimated center. A couple of ASCAT overpasses between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the center is located slightly northeast of the previous estimates, and it may be near the northeastern portion of the new convective mass, due to some northeasterly shear. Javier's initial wind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory, which is based on Dvorak classifications of T3.0 and the ASCAT data which showed winds to around 40 kt. Javier will be traversing very warm water and the shear is expected to decrease today, which should allow for strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. The intensity guidance is slightly lower than before, so the NHC forecast shows a little less strengthening than earlier. Although it is not explicitly indicated in the NHC forecast, Javier could become a hurricane when it is near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. In a day or so, decreasing SSTs, land interaction, and a more stable airmass are expected to cause weakening. The tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains the same from the previous advisory. Javier should continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward speed while it is steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge over Texas. The track guidance is in generally good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.2N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 23.1N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 24.2N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.4N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 27.2N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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