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Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-08 22:50:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082050 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently investigated Javier on a long mission from base. They measured peak SFMR-observed surface winds of 54 kt and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 52 kt. On the basis of these data, the intensity is set at 55 kt. Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight while the center pass near or over the extreme southern Baja California peninsula. Later the period, cooler SSTs, interaction with land, and an increasingly stable air mass should cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. Center fixes from the aircraft give an initial motion estimate of 315/8. Javier is expected to continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas. The official track forecast lies close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Observations from the aircraft indicate that Javier is a small tropical cyclone. Although some slight expansion of the wind field may occur over the next day or so, the radius of tropical-storm-force winds is not expected to be much more than 60 n mi. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.5N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.3N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.2N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 26.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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