je.st
news
Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-09 04:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090245 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Javier at 700 mb this evening, as part of a research mission, measured peak SFMR-observed surface winds of 46 kt. A dropsonde measured a central pressure of 1003 mb, but with a 45-kt surface wind, which equates to a pressure of about 999 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been lowered slightly to 50 kt. The reconnaissance wind data also indicate that Javier remains a compact tropical cyclone, and that the flight-level center is tilted southwest of the surface center. Smoothing through the various wobbles in the fixes yields an initial motion estimate of 315/04 kt. Javier is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the western periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States and northern Mexico. The weak steering flow could result in some erratic motion as Javier moves closer to southern Baja California and interacts with the mountainous terrain. The new NHC track is essentially just and update of the previous advisory track, which takes Javier up the west side of the Baja California peninsula, and lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCN. Aircraft flight-level data also revealed that dry mid-level air had penetrated into the inner-core region, and this was probably the main reason for the erosion of the deep convection in the northeastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Although some modest convection has recently developed in the southeastern quadrant, it is less likely now that Javier will be able to sustain any significant intensification due to the aforementioned dry mid-level air and the small cyclone interacting with land through most of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast closely follows the consensus intensity model, IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 22.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 23.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 25.1N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 27.3N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||