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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-10-02 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021431 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE AND CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY TROPICAL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS JERRY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LGEM GUIDANCE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JERRY WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY QUITE POSSIBLE. CENTER FIXES ARE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. JERRY IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 500-MB WESTERLIES. A BROAD TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LATER ON...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD CARRY JERRY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE LATEST RUN OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 28.2N 43.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 29.1N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 30.3N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 31.4N 39.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 32.4N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 34.7N 31.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 37.5N 26.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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