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Tropical Storm JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-28 22:13:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 282013 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013 A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INSTRUMENT MEASURED A SMALL AREA OF 40 KT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY ASSIGNED TO THE CYCLONE. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. JULIETTE IS A VERY SMALL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT ONLY 30 TO 40 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE TROPICAL STORM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND REACHES COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WEST OF THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED THERAFTER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOWER...IT SHOULD TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 21.5N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 23.8N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 25.6N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 26.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 26.8N 117.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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