je.st
news
Tropical Storm JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-29 04:47:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290247 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 800 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013 SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF JULIETTE IS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE SMALL CENTER NEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CABO PULMO MEXICO. JULIETTE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/21...AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GYRE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 12 HR...AND IT LIES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HR OR LESS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER COLD WATER IN ABOUT 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BETWEEN 48-72 HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THIS SMALL CYCLONE WOULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY DEGENERATING TO AN OPEN TROUGH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 23.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 24.7N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 27.1N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 27.6N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||