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Tropical Storm JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-08-29 10:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 200 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 WIND REPORTS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE LAST EVENING INDICATED THAT JULIETTE WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AN ELEVATED SENSOR AT CABO PULMO MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57 KT AND A GUST TO 72 KT AROUND 0500 UTC...AND ANOTHER ELEVATED STATION FURTHER UP THE WEST COAST AT EL PESCADERO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 KT WITH A GUST TO 60 KT AROUND 0430 UTC. BASED ON AN ADJUSTMENT OF THESE DATA...AND THE FACT THAT JULIETTE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/19 KT. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND EAST ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEPS THE CENTER OF JULIETTE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. JULIETTE HAS BEEN BENEFITTING FROM A SMALL TONGUE OF WARM WATER THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING MUCH COLDER WATER. THE COLD WATER...AS WELL AS CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN VERY SOON. THE UPDATED INITIAL INTENSITY CAUSED AN UPWARD BUMP IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW KEEPS JULIETTE AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST NOW PUTS MORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT RISK FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS THEREFORE EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 24.4N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 26.1N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 27.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 28.5N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 28.9N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
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