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Tropical Storm JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-08-29 16:50:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 291450 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 800 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS ARE TAKING A TOLL ON JULIETTE. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DEGRADED...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. EITHER WAY...JULIETTE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH LONGER. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 19 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 25.7N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 27.1N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 28.2N 117.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0000Z 29.0N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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