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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-08-04 10:49:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 040848 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Satellite images indicate that, although that the cyclone has a large area of associated deep convection, it is somewhat lopsided with most of the thunderstorms activity west of the center. However, Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are both at 35 kt, and two ASCAT passes from a couple of hours ago indicate maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed is, therefore, set to 40 kt in agreement with the ASCAT data. Only a gradual intensification of Julio is shown over the next 36 hours due to a continuation of moderate northeasterly shear that is currently affecting the cyclone. While there is some suggestion that this shear could abate after this time, there is enough uncertainty to only show steady strengthening. At long range, the cyclone will be close to the typical sharp SST gradient over the eastern Pacific, as well as possibly a cold wake from Iselle, so no intensity change is indicated at that time. The latest NHC forecast is only slightly higher than the previous one, between the latest model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. ASCAT data show that Julio is moving westward at about 11 kt. A strong ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the storm westward at a slightly faster forward speed for the next several days. Julio should gradually gain some latitude by the end of the forecast period due to the orientation of the ridge, and model guidance has shifted northward at long range on this cycle. The NHC track forecast is also adjusted northward, but is still a bit south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 13.4N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 13.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 13.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 13.6N 128.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 14.4N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 15.2N 139.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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