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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-08-04 16:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041440 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Julio remains sharply sheared from the northeast, and deep convection is limited to the western half of the circulation. A blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt. The global dynamical guidance suggests that moderate northwesterly shear will continue for at least the next 24 to 36 hours, which should limit the rate at which the tropical cyclone can strengthen. After that, the environment is forecast to become more favorable, and the members of IVCN unanimously indicate that Julio will become a hurricane within 72 hours. By days 4 and 5, the intensity is expected to level off while the cyclone encounters cooler SSTs due to a combination of the sharp SST gradient to the northwest, and a possible cold wake from Hurricane Iselle. The initial motion remains 270/11. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged and Julio is still expected to be steered generally west-northwestward by a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. A slightly more northward component to the motion is expected later in the forecast period while Julio encounters a slight weakness in the mid-level ridge. The track guidance has shifted north again so the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward accordingly. However, it remains slightly south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.5N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.3N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 13.4N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 13.7N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 14.1N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.0N 134.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 15.7N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 16.5N 146.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Berg
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