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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-05 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050239 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier GCOM AMSR2 microwave overpass show that Julio's cloud pattern continues to gradually improve. Cold tops of -80 C are now evident in association with the developing banding feature south of the center. The AMSR2 pass as well as visible imagery also indicated that deep convection is now wrapping around the northeast portion of the cyclone despite the relatively moderate northeasterly shear. However, the Dvorak subjective and ADT objective satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from the previous advisory and the initial intensity is held at a conservative 50 kt. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast from the previous package. However, the forecast now shows a peak intensity of 90 kt at the 48- and 72-hour time frame to correspond more with the SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble. Julio has continued to move at a swift pace this evening and the initial motion is estimated to be 270/14. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending from the southwest United States and Mexico into the eastern Pacific should steer the cyclone on the same heading and at a similar forward speed during the next 4 days. After that time, the large-scale models show the western extent of the ridge weakening in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching the Hawaiian Islands from the northwest. This change in the steering pattern should cause Julio to turn gradually toward the west- northwest, and the model guidance has shifted northward late in the period on this cycle. The NHC track forecast is therefore adjusted northward, and lies just to the south of the TVCE multi- model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 13.5N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 13.7N 124.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 14.2N 127.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 14.7N 130.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 15.2N 133.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 16.0N 138.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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