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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-05 10:55:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050855 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Enhanced BD-curve and shortwave infrared imagery reveal little change in the overall cloud pattern of Julio this morning. A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass caught the west side of the cyclone and indicated that the winds over the area have actually decreased a bit from yesterday's overpass. Evidently, the 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear continues to impede intensification of the cyclone. Satellite intensity estimates are the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory. The statistical/dynamical guidance, however, still indicates strengthening through 48 to 60 hours, and both the SHIPS and the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) show a maximum intensity of 80 kt at that time. Late in the forecast period, Julio is expected to traverse a rather steep sea surface temperature gradient and encounter a more dry and stable air mass intruding from the mid-latitudes of the central Pacific. Both negative contributions should promote a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast follows suit, and is based on a blend of the higher SHIPS and FSSE guidance, which is slightly above the IVCN model. A timely 0523 UTC AMSU MHS microwave image was quite helpful in pinpointing the center of circulation. Julio's initial motion is estimated to be 275/13 kt, within the mid-level easterly flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north. This east-to- west oriented ridge is expected to influence a generally westward heading for the next 3 days. For the remainder of the forecast period, global models show a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from northwest of the Big Island of Hawaii and eroding the western extent of the ridge. The weakening of the ridge is expected to cause Julio to turn toward west-northwestward through day 5. The NHC forecast is again adjusted slightly to the right, and is very close to the TVCE multi-model consensus and the FSSE corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.6N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 13.9N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.6N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 15.7N 134.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 16.4N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 17.0N 146.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 19.0N 152.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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