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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-08-05 16:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051434 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Microwave imagery indicates that the center of Julio is located on the northern edge of the convective canopy, consistent with 10 kt or so of northeasterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS satellite analyses and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Conditions should support gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days, and the NHC forecast shows Julio becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours. By day 4, the cyclone will be moving over more marginal SSTs around 26C, but then back over warmer water by day 5. Given that the shear remains relatively low late in the period, only a little weakening is shown by day 4 with the intensity leveling off afterward. The NHC forecast is a little above the IVCN intensity consensus through the period. Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest that the center is located a little to the north of previous estimates, providing an initial motion estimate of 275/11. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Julio will be steered generally westward through 96 hours by a mid-level ridge to the north. By day 5, the cyclone will be approaching the western edge of the ridge, which should result in a turn toward the west-northwest. The combination of the more northward initial position and a northward shift in the guidance results in the NHC track forecast being nudged northward a bit. The official forecast close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models on the south side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.0N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.4N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.1N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.1N 135.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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