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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-08-05 22:54:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052054 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that Julio is becoming better organized, with increased convective banding and cloud tops colder than -80C near the center. Satellite intensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from TAFB and SAB respectively. In addition, an earlier CIMSS AMSU estimate was 53 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is now 280/12. A low/mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it westward to west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days. After that, the dynamical models forecast the ridge to weaken, which would cause Julio to move more northward. The track guidance envelope is similar to the previous guidance through 72 hours, and this part of the forecast is an update of the previous forecast. From 72-120 hours, the guidance envelope has shifted significantly to the north. The new forecast track is also shifted northward, but it still lies to the south of the consensus models and all of the dynamical models except the GFDL/NAVGEM. If the current model trends continue, an additional northward adjustment may be necessary in later advisories. It should be noted that the NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission for Hurricane Iselle, and the data from this mission will hopefully help the subsequent forecasts for Julio. Julio is now in a light vertical wind shear environment, and the dynamical models suggest this will continue through the forecast period. However, the forecast track takes the system over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures during the next 48 hours. The consensus of the intensity guidance is for continued strengthening for the next 36-48 hours, and the increased banding seen during the last few hours could be the start of a faster intensification rate. The new intensity forecast continues to call for a peak intensity of 75 kt, and at this time only the HFIP-sponsored University of Wisconsin model forecasts a higher peak intensity. After 48 hours, gradual weakening is expected as the center moves along the 26C isotherm and this part of the new forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.2N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.7N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.4N 131.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.0N 134.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.6N 137.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 19.0N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 21.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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