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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-05 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050835 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 04 2021 Deep convection has increased near the center of the cyclone during the last several hours, and an outer convective band is present in the southeastern semicircle. Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus estimate is 39 kt. Based on these data, the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Jimena with 35-kt winds. The initial motion is 315/6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the tropical cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 2-3 days, and this should keep Jimena moving generally northwestward. After that time, a west-northwestward motion is expected as the weakening system is steered more by the low-level flow. The track guidance models have shifted a bit to the right since the previous advisory. Therefore, the official forecast will also be nudged to the right. However, the new forecast track still lies to the left of the consensus models. While Jimena is in a moist and low-shear environment, the storm is moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with the center forecast to be over 25 C water in about 24 h. Thus, little additional strengthening is expected. After 24 h, the system should weaken due to even colder SSTs and increasing shear. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.5N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 16.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 140.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 20.0N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0600Z 22.0N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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