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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-23 10:53:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230853 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite images indicate that John continues to become better organized, with very deep convection near the center and some tight curved band features. Earlier microwave imagery also showed some inner core development, with perhaps a partial eyewall trying to form. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 06z were 35 kt from both TAFB/SAB, though the objective values were between 40-50 kt. The intensity is set to 40 kt as a blend of these data. The storm is moving slowly to the north-northeast, caught in the large-scale southwesterly flow associated with the monsoon trough near Central America. There has been a big change in most of the track guidance since yesterday, with a fair number of the models now showing a steadier northeastward motion with less eastward steering from the incipient tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the models have shifted leftward and faster. The official forecast is also trended in that direction, but could still be too far to the east. John is forecast to be over very warm waters with light shear while it approaches the coast of Mexico over the next day or so. While none of the regional hurricane models make John a hurricane before landfall, the rapid intensification indices are indicating at least a 50 percent chance that this system strengthens 30 kt in the next 24 hours, which would indicate hurricane-strength. Given the uncertainties involved, a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico on this advisory, and interests there should closely monitor for future forecast updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Storm John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin late today. 3. John could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as Hurricane Warnings could be required for a portion of the coastline later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.4N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm John (EP5/EP102024)
2024-09-23 10:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JOHN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.4, -98.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-23 10:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230852 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 98.5W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 98.5 West. John is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two and move inland on Tuesday or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen over the next day or two, and could become a hurricane before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible early Tuesday within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to start within portions of the warning area late today or early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics