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Tropical Storm John Graphics
2024-09-25 22:53:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 20:53:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 20:53:54 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm John Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-09-25 22:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252052 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 John is becoming more organized this afternoon. Satellite imagery has shown deep bursts of convection forming near the center with curved banding around the majority of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak from TAFB and SAB were 3.5/55 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, and the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 45 kt to represent a blend of these estimates. An Air Force Hurricane Reconnaissance aircraft is en route to investigate John and gather more information about the intensity, location, and structure. The tropical-storm-force winds in the southeast quadrant have been adjusted outward significantly based on an earlier partial ASCAT pass. Little has changed in the intensity forecast reasoning. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are conducive for further intensification, as long as the storm remains over water. SHIPS-RII, a rapid intensification indicator, shows about a 70 percent chance of rapid intensification in the next 24 hours. The official intensity forecast now shows John becoming a hurricane in 24 hours as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. This forecast is near the top of the guidance, closest to HCCA, but could still be conservative. John is moving with an estimated motion of 355/3 kt. The track forecast is rather uncertain. Model guidance has shifted westward, and is showing John either nearly stationary or slowly following the coastline northwestward. This motion seems to depend on the strength of the ridge to the north-northwest, which is centered over the southwestern United States. However, the current motion suggests John should move closer to the coast with the center likely to move inland on Thursday afternoon or evening, though this could occur sooner. Future adjustments to the track forecast may be necessary, and there remains a large spread in the aids. A Hurricane Warning has been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and interests there should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have also been extended westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued for a portion of the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin later today. The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have also been extended westward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.1N 101.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 17.5N 101.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.0N 101.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z 18.2N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-09-25 22:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252052 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 33 15(48) 4(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) L CARDENAS 50 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) L CARDENAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 56 15(71) 5(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ZIHUATANEJO 50 11 17(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ZIHUATANEJO 64 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 23 4(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ACAPULCO 34 44 8(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) P MALDONADO 34 10 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics