je.st
news
Tropical Storm John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-09-24 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240850 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 50 66 X(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm John Public Advisory Number 8
2024-09-24 10:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240850 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...JOHN NOW A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING TO CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERN MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 100.0W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NW OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the the Hurricane Warning from east of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Lagunas de Chacahua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 100.0 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A very slow motion westward followed by very little motion is forecasted over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is anticipated, and John is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Hurricane John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm John Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-09-24 10:49:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240849 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics