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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-28 04:33:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 Recent microwave imagery, including an 0022 UTC ASCAT-B pass, indicates that Joyce's circulation is tilted with height, with a mid-level center feature displaced about 40 nm north of the low-level center. The scatterometer data also indicated that Joyce still has maximum winds of 45 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest (300/10 kt) to the south of a narrow subtropical ridge. Deep-layer troughing is forecast to amplify over the central Atlantic during the next few days, eroding the ridge and causing Joyce to gradually turn toward the northwest and north and slow down to a crawl by this time on Monday. Because several of the regional hurricane models appear to keep Joyce too strong in the coming days (more on that below) and show recurvature with acceleration, the NHC track forecast more closely follows the global models and is a blend of the previous forecast with the GFEX consensus. UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that Joyce is being affected by moderate-to-strong southerly shear, which is reflected by the satellite presentation. This shear is not expected to abate during the next few days, and the storm will also be moving into a gradually drier and subsident environment. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during the next 24 hours, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Joyce is likely to lose its organized convection and become a remnant low by day 3, if not sooner. The remnant low should degenerate into a trough by day 4 or 5 and will likely be absorbed by a larger weather system moving across the eastern Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 18.9N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 19.3N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.3N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.0N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 21.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 22.0N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0000Z 22.4N 49.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-28 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Joyce was located near 18.9, -44.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-28 04:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024 ...JOYCE HOLDING STEADY IN INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 44.7W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 44.7 West. Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is forecast later on Sunday and Monday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics