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Tropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 5
2024-09-28 17:03:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 281438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 ...JOYCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 46.0W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.0 West. Joyce is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Public Advisory Number 21
2024-09-28 16:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-09-28 16:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 556 WTNT41 KNHC 281441 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce seems to be experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear. After maintaining a decent convective burst overnight, southerly wind shear appears to be pulling the thunderstorms to the north, partially exposing the low-level circulation. A new burst of convection is now growing near the center. Satellite-derived surface wind data measured a few wind speeds greater than 40 kt in the northwest quadrant, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The storm continues to move at 305/9 kt. Joyce is on the south side of a narrow and weakening subtropical ridge, and should continue generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next day or so. As a deep-layer trough over the northern Atlantic amplifies and breaks the ridge, Joyce should slow and turn more poleward early next week. The official forecast still shows the storm not recurving to the north, as it is expected to be a shallow vortex at that time, and instead drifts north-northwestward until the system dissipates, similar to the previous prediction. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to remain marginal around Joyce in the coming days. The SHIPS model diagnostics show the deep-layer vertical wind shear staying moderate-to-strong, likely forcing dry air into Joyce's circulation. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and calls for little change in intensity today, followed by steady weakening through early next week. Joyce is still expected to become a remnant low by day 3, however, models are now showing the system opening into a trough and dissipating by day 4, and this is reflected in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.5N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.1N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.2N 49.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 22.6N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics