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Tropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2024-09-28 22:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 282041 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-09-28 22:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 282041 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2024 Joyce is still feeling the effects of the southerly deep-layer wind shear. Periodic bursts of convection have been forming just north of the center and quickly moving poleward, leaving the low-level circulation partially exposed all afternoon. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have been coming down, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Dry mid-level humidities and moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear should induce gradual weakening over the next few days. Joyce is expected to become a tropical depression on Monday, a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday, and dissipated on Wednesday. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted downward slightly due to the lower initial intensity. The motion of the storm is now west-northwestward at 8 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion, with a slower forward speed is expected for the next day or so as Joyce is steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to the north. On Monday, Joyce should turn more north-northwestward to northward towards a weakens in the ridge caused by a deepening trough over the northern Atlantic. More of the model guidance is showing Joyce, or its remnants, being picked up by the trough and the track guidance envelope has shifted north and east. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted north and east of the previous prediction and lies on the western side of the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 20.3N 46.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 20.9N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.7N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.3N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.9N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 23.5N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 24.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-28 22:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Joyce was located near 20.3, -46.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics