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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-09-01 22:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012041 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Juliette's presentation in visible satellite imagery has continued to improve, with hints of a banding eye now present. That said, the convection in the cyclone's bands is not that deep, and recent ASCAT data still supports an intensity of 50 kt. No change was made to the track forecast. The hurricane is moving northwest at 11 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern US. All of the guidance shows that Juliette will move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3 days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. After that, differences in the forecasted strength of the ridge result in a larger model spread. The ECMWF shows Juliette turning nearly westward due to an amplification of the ridge, while the GFS forecasts that the ridge will weaken, causing Juliette to move farther north. The NHC forecast is nearly directly between those two models and lies very close to the model consensus at all forecast hours, but its worth noting that confidence in the track forecast is fairly low at 96 h and beyond. Low wind shear, a warm underlying ocean, and sufficient environmental moisture should allow Juliette to strengthen for the next 2-3 days. The largest uncertainty is the rate at which the tropical storm will strengthen, and the rapid intensification guidance is not quite as bullish as it was 6 hours ago. Subsequently, no major change was made to the intensity forecast, and Juliette is still expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By the end of the forecast, the cyclone will likely begin moving over cooler waters and through a far more stable environment. This should cause Juliette to weaken, particularly if it moves farther north than the NHC official forecast, as shown by the GFS. If Juliette takes a farther south track, like that of the ECMWF, it could maintain its intensity longer than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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