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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-02 04:41:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020241 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Although there has been some new deep bursts of convection near the center of circulation this evening, the banding features still remain quite fragmented. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, as well as a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory. Juliette is expected to intensify at a near climatological rate during the next 48 hours, indicative of low deep-layer shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. After 72 hours, Juliette will be moving over decreasing SSTs, and into a high statically stable marine layer air mass which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the IVCN multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11 kt within the east-southeasterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward through the forecast period with some reduction in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, the cross-track spread of the model guidance increases in response to large-scale synoptic differences in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The ECMWF and the Canadian still indicate the cyclone turning westward due to strengthening of the subtropical ridge, while the GFS, HWRF, and the UKMET reflect less ridging, and induce a more northwestward track. The new official forecast is nudged south of the previous forecast and lies between the TVCE consensus and the ECMWF global. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.4N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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