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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-02 10:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020840 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 After struggling to strengthen during the previous 12-h period due to the entrainment of mid-level dry air, a strong burst of deep convection, accompanied by frequent lightning and cloud tops near -90C, has developed near the well-defined low-level circulation center. A nearly circular CDO feature has also formed over the center, and the upper-level outflow has improved and expanded in all quadrants. During the past few hours, SSMI/S and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate that a primitive mid-level eye feature had formed, and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS SATCON were T3.5/55 kt and 57 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. A deep-layer ridge anchored to the north of Juliette is expected to change little, driving Juliette on a general west-northwestward track throughout the 5-day period. As a result, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance. Now that a nearly complete mid-level eye feature has formed, rapid intensification is expected to occur during the next 24 hours due to Juliette being embedded within very favorable environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear near 5 kt, an unhindered outflow pattern, and a moist mid-level environment, along with traversing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 28-29 deg C. Thereafter, a slower rate of strengthening is expected through 36-48 hours due to the cyclone moving over marginal SSTs. Steady weakening is forecast on days 3-5 when Juliette will be moving over sub-26C SSTs despite low shear conditions. The new official intensity forecast is a little above all of the available intensity guidance, and shows the same peak intensity as the previous advisory, except that the time of occurrence has been moved forward by 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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