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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-02 16:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021441 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Juliette is nearing hurricane strength. An increase in deep convection that was noted with the previous advisory has persisted, and recent microwave data shows that the cyclone has developed a well-defined inner-core. Given the observed increase in Juliette's organization, the initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt, which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON fixes. Juliette is forecast to quickly strengthen today, and rapid intensification is a real possibility during the next 24 hours or so given the seemingly favorable environment and the presence of an low- to mid-level eye in recent microwave data. Beyond 48 h, the cyclone should begin to weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and encounters a drier surrounding environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus from 72 h through the end of the period, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to how quickly Juliette will weaken since it will be moving along a sharp SST gradient. A track farther north than the NHC forecast would likely cause Juliette to weaken faster than anticipated, while a farther south track could allow it to maintain its strength for longer. Very little change was made to the track forecast. A deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Juliette should keep it on a generally west-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 3 or 4 days days. The track guidance is particularly tightly clustered through that period and confidence in the forecast is high. The ridge could amplify by day 5 and cause Juliette to turn westward, as shown most notably by the ECMWF, though confidence is a little lower at that time. The NHC forecast is very near TVCE and HCCA at all times and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 16.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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