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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-06 10:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio is a compact and well-defined tropical storm as indicated by recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave imagery, with the center located underneath the eastern portion of the deep convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 39 kt, and based on this data the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. Julio has accelerated and is now moving west-northwestward at 18 kt around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue for the next day or so, with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A turn to west is anticipated by Monday as the cyclone begins to weaken and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 h, but was shifted southward thereafter in response to a southerly shift in the guidance. The intensity forecast for Julio is low confidence, as the global models have struggled to resolve the small size of the cyclone, resulting in a large spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS guidance suggests that the moderate easterly shear currently impacting Julio will decrease in 12-24 h, while the system is still over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. Therefore, this guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. Despite the generally favorable conditions shown in the SHIPS guidance, the global models show no further intensification and weaken the cyclone almost immediately. Due to the resilience of Julio up until this point, the latest NHC intensity forecast leans towards the higher SHIPS guidance over the next day or so, then trends toward the lower global model forecasts later on in the forecast period. All of the global models suggest Julio will dissipate in a few days, and this is still being indicated in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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