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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-06 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio has surprisingly accelerated west-northwestward during the past few hours, moving around the northeast periphery of a broad trough of low pressure. The tiny tropical storm continues to produce small but frequent bursts of central convection and has not changed appreciably since the most recent ASCAT pass that supported an intensity of 40 kt. Julio's future is unusually unclear for a system that is forecast to dissipate. The global models are struggling to resolve Julio, and only the ECMWF has a realistic current depiction of the cyclone. Those models universally indicate that Julio will either dissipate or be absorbed by the aforementioned broad area of low pressure located to its southwest within the next 24 to 36 hours. This is certainly plausible given Julio's small size and limited convection. On the other hand, the HWRF and HMON models now indicate that Julio will not only persist through day 5, but potentially strengthen when upper-level winds are forecast to become less hostile in a couple days. The disagreement can not be explained entirely by model resolution as the COAMPS-TC also weakens Julio. I see no clear reason to support one solution over another at this point. Therefore, the official forecast continues to show dissipation for now, though the intensity has been hedged slightly higher at 48 h and 60 h. The NHC track forecast leans heavily on the HWRF and HMON models and has been adjusted significantly faster for the first 24 h due to Julio's recent acceleration. Much larger changes may be required to the forecast later today or tonight if it becomes more likely that Julio will persist longer than currently indicated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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