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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-06 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062034 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio remains a compact tropical storm that is producing a small area of deep convection near and to the west of the center. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed maximum winds around 30 kt, which was lower than in previous passes. Based on that data and the latest Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The ASCAT data also suggest that the circulation of Julio is not as well defined on the south side as it was earlier. As mentioned in the previous discussion, Julio's future is somewhat unclear. The ECMWF and UKMET models show Julio becoming absorbed by a larger low just to its southwest in a couple of days. Conversely, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Julio being the dominant feature, with the latter two aids even showing strengthening. Since confidence is low on which scenario will play out, it seems best to hold continuity for now, which ends up leaning closer to the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one given the lower initial intensity. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 17 kt. Julio should continue to move westward to west-northwestward at a fairly quick pace for another 12-24 hours. However, after that time, a notable slow down should occur as the ridge over the eastern Pacific breaks down and leaves the cyclone in weak steering currents. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted to the south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 19.3N 110.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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