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Tropical Storm KAREN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2013-10-04 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 042039 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 4 10 31 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 4 17 16 24 34 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 76 69 56 31 NA NA HURRICANE 2 5 11 9 5 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 5 10 8 5 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 11(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 16(22) 13(35) X(35) X(35) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 15(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 6( 9) 14(23) 19(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 11(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 2 9(11) 12(23) 7(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 3 9(12) 13(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) STENNIS MS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 8 18(26) 21(47) 5(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 29 16(45) 13(58) 3(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 4 13(17) 12(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 29 22(51) 11(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 7( 9) 6(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 7( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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